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Business Matters: Did You Know 48 Streams Equals One Download?

-- (Editor's note: due to a spreadsheet typo, this article originally stated that 48 streams at 1.146 cents per stream equals the gross revenue rights holders get from a 99-cent download -- the correct number is 64 streams. Billboard.biz regrets the error.) .I was a guest on the WNYC program "Soundcheck" Tuesday to talk about Spotify and the economics of digital music. The arrival of this anticipated music service has turned out to be a good jumping off point for a conversation about the economics of digital music. Here is Spotify in perspective: it would take 48 streams at 1.146 cents per stream to equal the gross revenue rights holders get from a 99-cent download. That equation uses the 1.146-cent per-stream payout received most recently by the band The Layaways, as detailed at the blog Digital Audio Insider. The band's average Spotify payout from August 2009 to March 2011 was 0.2865 cents per stream. It would take 244 of them to equal the 70 cents the band would get from a 99-cent download (before the distribution fee). A listener would need over 14 hours to stream 244 songs that are 3:30 in length. However, Spotify's free accounts will allow just ten hours of listening per month after an initial six-month period of unlimited listening. Of course, other companies pay out similar royalties. Pure-play webcasters like Pandora pay out even less - 0.0102 cents per stream in 2011, to be exact. But Pandora generates far less trepidation among record labels and artists. Radio - even Internet radio - has long been seen as a drive of music purchases. Airplay's positive impact on album and track sales is evidence of this cause-and-effect relationship. But Spotify could act as a substitute for purchases - access over ownership, remember? In fact, the licensing requirements for an on-demand service such as Spotify reflects the fact that copyright law views on-demand services as being more susceptible to copying (a substitute for purchases) than Internet radio. Time will tell if Spotify users buy more or fewer downloads, but the physical and digital sales trends in the second half of 2011 will hopefully provide us with some clues. As the industry shifts from one era to another, companies must adjust to new economics. As I said on "Soundcheck," the per-stream payouts are small relative to what people are used to receiving. We're increasingly living in a streaming world but we want download royalties. When the download market was growing people wanted to return to the boom years of the CD. But in ten years, streaming revenues will be the norm. Just as today's young musicians grew up without CD revenues, musicians of the future will know little else than streaming royalty rates.

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